One question, a tradable claim
A prediction market lets participants buy and sell claims on an event. A standard binary example pays $1 for a winning outcome and zero for a losing one. The actual contract rules define the outcome and can specify alternative settlement. It is the claim, not merely a headline about the event, that is traded.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
One question, a tradable claim
Polymarket US product identity ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
A winning and losing calculation
Twenty contracts bought at 35¢ cost $7 before fees. If each settles at $1, gross payment is $20 and profit before fees $13. If they settle at zero, the stake loss is $7 plus fees. Selling early instead produces proceeds at the actual exit price, minus applicable charges.
A 35¢ price on a $1 contract translates to 35% implied probability before costs. It does not independently measure the event’s true chance or tell you that the position is suitable.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
A winning and losing calculation
Polymarket US product identity ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
Why prices and forecasts can disagree
A last trade, midpoint, best bid and executable ask are different measurements. The last trade can be old; the best quote can cover only a small quantity. Trading costs, risk preferences, capital constraints and liquidity all affect the price.
Two venues can also define “the same” event differently: observation windows, data revisions, deadlines and resolution sources can change the result. A price gap between unequal claims is not evidence of a riskless opportunity.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
Why prices and forecasts can disagree
Polymarket US product identity ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
What to read next
Start with the contract mechanics guide, then the fee guide, then a product comparison. In the US, keep Polymarket US separate from its international crypto-based namesake. Funding availability, identity checks and market-specific restrictions are separate questions.
This publication explains mechanics and comparisons; it does not submit orders, hold funds, connect wallets or provide personalised recommendations. Losing contracts can pay nothing. Use the calculator to understand the arithmetic before drawing conclusions from a percentage.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
What to read next
Polymarket US product identity ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
One full claim, two cash outcomes
A hypothetical contract asks whether an official release is strictly above a named threshold. Buying ten Yes contracts at 60¢ costs $6 before fees. A Yes settlement returns $10 gross, or $4 before fees. A No settlement returns $0 and loses $6 plus fees. A release exactly equal to a strictly-above threshold does not satisfy that question.
| Moment | Cash effect |
|---|---|
| Buy 10 at 60¢ | −$6, plus entry costs |
| Yes resolves | +$10 gross; +$4 net before costs |
| No resolves | $0 returned; −$6 net before costs |
Source provenance and retrieval dates
One full claim, two cash outcomes
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US product identity ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
Sources
- Polymarket US settlement →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
- Polymarket international resolution →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
- Polymarket US product identity →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Your next useful step
Use a known price; the calculation does not supply current odds.
Translate a quote into implied probability →