Election day and the Electoral College
The National Archives distinguishes the November general election, when voters select a slate of electors, from the later Electoral College process. A popular-vote result is therefore a different question from appointment of electors or an Electoral College winner.
The popular vote, appointment of electors, electoral votes and the venue’s chosen resolution event are different things. A contract can define its result using a specific official source or exceptional procedure rather than a television projection.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
Election day and the Electoral College
National Archives election timing FAQ ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
National Archives appointment of electors ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
Compare questions before comparing prices
A nomination contract can resolve before the general election. A party-winner contract differs from a named-candidate contract if the nominee changes. A national popular-vote claim differs from an Electoral College winner claim. State-level contracts can use distinct certification sources and deadlines.
Write down the jurisdiction, candidate/party identity, observation time, resolution source and exceptional rules. A 5¢ gap between two unlike claims is not evidence of free profit.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
Compare questions before comparing prices
National Archives election timing FAQ ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
National Archives appointment of electors ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
What a hypothetical 55¢ price means
Under a standard $1/zero payoff, 55¢ translates to 55% implied probability before fees. A 100-contract purchase costs $55 before fees, pays $100 gross if it wins and zero if it loses. Opinion, liquidity and constraints influence the quote; it is not a poll margin or a guaranteed outcome.
This page does not display live election odds, scraped candidate prices or a historic price chart. It explains how to evaluate a properly sourced quote without implying licensed data access.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
What a hypothetical 55¢ price means
National Archives election timing FAQ ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
National Archives appointment of electors ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
Why the timeline matters
Election night, certification, electoral voting and contract settlement need not occur together. Recounts, candidate changes and disputes should be evaluated under the exact market rule rather than a broad headline. International dispute mechanisms and US clearing/settlement rules are separate systems.
Use the source links to understand the electoral process and the product guides to inspect the contract. No particular candidate outcome, legal access conclusion or trading recommendation is made.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
Why the timeline matters
National Archives election timing FAQ ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
National Archives appointment of electors ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
A candidate change does not affect every contract alike
Consider hypothetical Candidate A winning a party nomination and later being replaced by Candidate B before the general election. A nomination contract, an A-wins-election contract and a party-wins-election contract can then have different outcomes. The candidate, party, event and resolution source are separate fields—not interchangeable labels. No actual candidate or predicted outcome is implied.
Likewise, a candidate can win a national popular-vote measure without satisfying a contract defined by an Electoral College result. Compare only identical claims and use the venue’s exceptional-outcome clauses for replacement, recount or unresolved certification. The National Archives source explains the electoral process; the venue’s rules determine the contract.
Source provenance and retrieval dates
A candidate change does not affect every contract alike
National Archives election timing FAQ ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
National Archives appointment of electors ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket US settlement ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Polymarket international resolution ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
An election has several decision points
A nomination, election-day vote, state certification and Electoral College process are distinct milestones. A candidate-specific contract, party-winner contract and popular-vote contract need not resolve together. These examples describe contract identity; they contain no current candidates or odds.
| Stage | What to distinguish |
|---|---|
| Nomination | Candidate can later change |
| Election day | Popular vote is not Electoral College outcome |
| Certification | Official process and source |
| Electoral process | Use the contract’s stated determination rule |
Source provenance and retrieval dates
An election has several decision points
National Archives election timing FAQ ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
National Archives appointment of electors ↗
Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
Published source scope only. Numerical examples labelled hypothetical are our calculations; private-account performance is not established.
Sources
- Polymarket US settlement →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
- Polymarket international resolution →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
- National Archives election timing FAQ →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
- National Archives appointment of electors →Last successful source check: 2026-10-24Evidence origin: direct public-document read · Current evidence status: verified
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